Juniper Publishers- Open Access Journal of Engineering Technology




Risk Mitigation - What's Your Score?


Authored By Philip Crosby

This article examines conventional methods for risk identification and risk scoring using 'look-up' tables, and concludes that such methods are inherently flawed and offer false confidence in project management. The author suggests a series of searching questions to test the efficacy of traditional risk assessment in order to better prepare the project for review. Important further considerations are posed in relation to nonspecific, irrational risk exposure (i.e. Black Swans), and the author presents two approaches for improved preparedness against undefined risk.
Ask about risk management in almost any complex project, and you're likely to be presented with some form of table listing various risks, often ranked by severity, with many of the highest risk exposures “mitigated” by control measures and demoted to safer (non-red!) scores. These conventional style risk plans, underpinned by likelihood and consequence ratings derived from coloured look-up tables, certainly give the impression of a scientific treatment of project risk. But if you then ask more searching questions around the
(i) Relative meaning of the derived risk score,
(ii) Frequency of updates and reviews of risk tables, or
(iii) Verification of the effectiveness of mitigation plans,don't be surprised to see 'cracks' appearing. (For example,how much 'riskier' is a score of five, than a score of four?).
However, perhaps such lack of ongoing attention matters little, since a growing number of researchers suggest serious flaws in this standard method of risk management. Awati [1] sums up these concerns, drawing on work by both Hubbard and Cox, each theorising that such arbitrarily chosen (and likely biased) risk ratings are mostly worthless.

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